Given the very active hurricane season of 2008 - refreshing
our memories of 2005 (Katrina, Rita, and Wilma) and 2004 (Charlie,
Frances, Ivan, Jeanne) - there is renewed interest in deploying
Atmocean upwelling pumps to cool the upper ocean and reduce hurricane
intensity.
We
have used the GFDL coupled ocean-atmosphere tracking & intensity
model used by National Hurricane Center to model the effects on
intensity attributable to cooling the upper ocean. From this we
have developed
the following deployment strategy:
- Deploy
Atmocean pumps in the path of the hurricane.
- Cover an
area 150km square.
- The
area covered by the pumps begins offshore where at least 10
degrees C. colder water is found (typically
a minimum depth of 75-100
meters).
- Pumps
are deployed 24 to 36 hours in advance.
Since
the hurricane generates ever-increasing waves, more cold water
is pumped as the storm approaches, resulting
in overall cooling
by about one degree C. - enough to lower peak
winds 5%
to 20%. Since hurricane damages are proportional
to the cube of
windspeed,
losses
could be reduced by 15% (e.g. 100mph reduced
to 95 mph) to 49% (100mph reduced to 80mph).
Both
in 2005 and this year, a portion of the Gulf Stream
spun off and formed a large eddy of very warm,
deep water in the Gulf
of
Mexico. If an approaching storm has a well-formed
eye, low wind shear in the upper atmosphere,
and crosses this warm eddy, rapid intensification
is likely. Therefore, a further strategy is
to
deploy Atmocean pumps weeks ahead of time in
the warm eddy
to reduce its heat content and
mitigate against rapid intensification. We hope
to conduct further modelling of this strategy
in the near future. |